The Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) has officially projected that Indonesia’s peak dry season will occur between July and September 2026. This period is expected to be longer and drier than the historical average, driven by a persistent El Nino phenomenon that may last until early 2027. Authorities are urging immediate cross-sectoral preparations to mitigate risks to water supplies, public health, and food security.

Peak Dry Season Timeline and Affected Regions

According to BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani, the peak of the dry season will hit in stages, affecting nearly 86 percent of Indonesia’s total land area over three months. In July, 83 Zona Musim (ZOM)—representing 12.26 percent of the country—will experience peak conditions, including parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java, and Papua. The intensity peaks in August, covering 369 ZOM or 48.84 percent of the land, followed by 169 ZOM in September.

Data from the BMKG indicates that the impact is already underway. By the end of May 2026, 200 ZOM had already entered the dry season. An additional 198 ZOM are expected to follow throughout June, encompassing large portions of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and parts of Java, including the southern region of DKI Jakarta.

El Nino and Sectoral Risks

The convergence of the dry season with the El Nino phenomenon poses significant challenges for national infrastructure and public health. BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan noted that the dry conditions are likely to impact water availability and energy production, particularly for hydroelectric power plants (PLTA) that rely on dam water levels. Beyond energy, there is a heightened risk of respiratory infections due to declining air quality and an increased threat of forest and land fires (karhutla).

What May Happen Next

As the dry season progresses through October, government agencies and stakeholders are expected to increase coordination to prevent large-scale fires. Plt. Deputy for Meteorology Andri Ramdhani confirmed that the government will implement the Weather Modification Operation (OMC) on a situational basis, adjusting to atmospheric dynamics within windows of up to 10 days. Regional authorities are also being tasked with establishing rapid response mechanisms to manage public health risks and ensure water distribution networks remain operational for local communities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What should the agricultural sector do to prepare?
The BMKG recommends that farmers adjust their planting schedules and select drought-resistant crop varieties that require less water and have shorter growth cycles.

How is the government addressing the risk of forest fires?
The government is coordinating with local stakeholders to strengthen prevention efforts, which includes the deployment of the Weather Modification Operation (OMC) based on real-time atmospheric conditions.

Where can citizens find verified information regarding the dry season?
The BMKG urges the public to consult official channels—including their social media accounts and local offices—to avoid misinformation that could cause unnecessary public panic.

How are you and your community preparing for the anticipated water shortages during this year’s extended dry season?

Thieves used a front loader to steal an ATM containing an undisclosed amount of cash from a Bank of Ireland branch in Little Island, Co Cork, during the early hours of this morning. This incident follows a similar attempted theft in Mallow on 2 June, where suspects failed to access an ATM at a SuperValu in Ballydahin. Gardaí have launched investigations into both events and are currently reviewing CCTV footage to identify those involved.

Did You Know? The incident in Little Island marks the second time in recent days that a front loader or JCB has been used in an attempt to target an ATM in Co Cork.

Ongoing Investigations and Site Security

Gardaí are currently examining the scene in Little Island, where the theft caused extensive damage to the bank premises. Investigators are working to identify the specific vehicles used by the thieves during the operation. Forensic teams are scheduled to conduct a detailed examination of the site to gather evidence that may lead to the perpetrators.

In the earlier Mallow incident, suspects attempted to breach steel security shutters at the SuperValu branch in Ballydahin using a JCB. That attempt proved unsuccessful, and the individuals fled the scene. Gardaí have already completed a forensic examination of both the JCB and the ATM involved in that failed heist.

Expert Insight: The Pattern of ATM Theft

Expert Insight: The use of heavy machinery like front loaders suggests a high level of premeditation and a disregard for physical infrastructure. By targeting ATMs in the early hours of the morning, thieves aim to minimize the risk of civilian interference. The primary challenge for investigators is connecting these distinct incidents through vehicle identification and forensic recovery from the heavy equipment left at the scenes.

What Happens Next?

As the investigation continues, authorities may look for patterns linking the two Co Cork incidents. It is likely that gardaí will compare the forensic data recovered from the Mallow JCB with any evidence found at the Little Island site. A possible next step involves the public assisting by providing information or dashcam footage from the affected areas.

Anyone with information regarding either the Little Island theft or the attempted robbery in Mallow is encouraged to contact their local garda station. Reports can also be directed to the Garda Confidential Line at 1800 666 111.

Frequently Asked Questions

Was any money stolen in the Mallow incident?
No. In the 2 June incident at the SuperValu in Ballydahin, the suspects failed to gain access to the ATM and fled empty-handed.

What is the status of the investigation into the Little Island theft?
Gardaí have launched an investigation, are examining CCTV footage, and are preparing to conduct a forensic examination of the damaged site.

How can the public assist the gardaí?
Members of the public with information about either incident are asked to contact their local garda station or the Garda Confidential Line at 1800 666 111.

Are you concerned about the rising frequency of these incidents in local communities?