South African Fuel Prices: Bracing for a May Hike and Beyond
South African motorists are facing a looming increase in fuel prices for May, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and fluctuating international oil prices. The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates significant under-recoveries across all fuel grades, signaling substantial price adjustments at the pump.
Current Projections: A Deep Dive into the Numbers
As of April 14, 2026, the CEF’s daily snapshot forecasts a concerning rise in prices. 93-octane petrol, primarily available inland, is projected to increase by approximately R2.62 per liter, while 95-octane could notice a rise of R2.99/l. Diesel users are bracing for an even more substantial impact, with 0.05% sulphur diesel expected to jump by R9.05/l and 0.005% sulphur diesel by R9.07/l.

Currently, inland prices stand at R23.25/l for 93-octane petrol and R23.36/l for 95-octane. Coastal prices for 95-octane are slightly lower at R22.53/l. Wholesale diesel prices are currently R25.90/l (0.05% sulphur) and R26.11/l (0.005% sulphur) inland, compared to R25.07/l and R25.35/l respectively on the coast.
The Reinstatement of the General Fuel Levy: Adding Fuel to the Fire
The situation is further complicated by the anticipated reinstatement of the government’s general fuel levy cut. A temporary reduction of R3/l across all fuel grades is set to expire, potentially compounding the projected increases. This could push petrol prices towards R30/l and diesel closer to R40/l, significantly impacting household budgets and business operating costs.
Global Factors at Play: Middle East Conflict and Oil Prices
The primary driver behind these anticipated increases is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As highlighted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the war is disrupting global energy markets and creating upward pressure on crude oil prices. With crude currently trading above $100 per barrel, African nations, particularly those heavily reliant on imports, are feeling the strain.
The Energy in Africa reports that while oil-rich nations like Libya and Angola benefit from government subsidies, other countries are far more vulnerable to these global shocks.
South Africa’s Energy Landscape: A Gaze at Refinery Capacity
Historically, Africa has been heavily reliant on imported petroleum products. Up until 2024, approximately 90% of the continent’s needs were met through imports. Nigeria’s local refinery offers some supply security, but South Africa continues to grapple with refining capacity challenges. Pressure is mounting on the government to reopen the Sapref refinery to bolster fuel security, as reported by MSN.
The Role of the Central Energy Fund
The Central Energy Fund (CEF), a state-owned entity, plays a crucial role in South Africa’s energy sector. However, the World Benchmarking Alliance currently scores the CEF with a “G – Uncommitted” rating, indicating a lack of comprehensive climate transition planning and investment.
Did you know? The CEF operates through subsidiaries involved in oil and gas exploration, midstream gas operations, and coal mining for electricity generation.
Looking Ahead: Potential Future Trends
The current situation highlights the vulnerability of South Africa’s energy sector to external shocks. Several trends are likely to shape the future of fuel prices:
- Geopolitical Instability: Continued conflict in the Middle East will likely maintain upward pressure on oil prices.
- Refining Capacity: Increasing local refining capacity is crucial for reducing reliance on imports and enhancing fuel security.
- Energy Transition: Investment in renewable energy sources and alternative fuels could mitigate the impact of volatile oil prices in the long term.
- Government Policy: Decisions regarding fuel levies and subsidies will continue to play a significant role in determining prices at the pump.
FAQ: Your Fuel Price Questions Answered
- When will the final fuel price adjustments for May be announced? The adjustments will take effect on Wednesday, May 6.
- What is the current price of 95-octane petrol inland? Currently, We see R23.36/l.
- What is driving up fuel prices? The conflict in the Middle East and fluctuating international oil prices are the primary drivers.
Pro Tip: Consider carpooling, using public transport, or adopting fuel-efficient driving habits to minimize the impact of rising fuel costs.
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