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the descent of infections has begun. But hospitals still under pressure – Corriere.it

from Stefania Chiale

Data from the Region: the number of new positives decreases. Cases registered yesterday were 25% less than on January 6. The grip on healthcare facilities is not loosened: more than one out of three beds is occupied by Covid patients. The hospital at the Fiera reopened

Not only does the peak of January 4 hold for now. But the contagions in Lombardy, which will remain in yellow zone again next week
, are decreasing from week to week: we are, technically, below “zero” in terms of weekly increase of new positives. This is shown in a graph in the hands of the Directorate General for Welfare and viewed by Courier service, which indicates the increase in new positives in the last 7 days over the previous 7.

It is a column chart that every day marks the difference between the sum of the weekly cases and the sum of the cases of the previous week. In this way acceleration or deceleration is detected in increasing cases. And from here, therefore, the surge, the peak, the slowdown, the famous “plateau” and – finally – the descent of infections. But let’s go in order. For now, the curve continues to maintain the design of a peak on 4 January unchanged, with a subsequent descent in the following days, even very sudden. The surge had started in mid-December and it continued steadily up to 4 January. The day after which we witness – even taking into account the “distorted” data of the Epiphany, with a very low level of tests carried out – a rapid descent. Up to surprise yesterday, when the column went negative.

How to read the graph? When the pandemic is slowing down it does not mean that the infections are not increasing week by week and that they are not staying high, but that the increase in cases is slowing down from week to week. When it approaches “zero” it means that Lombardy is on a plateau, that is, in a period in which infections remain substantially establish swinging slightly up or down. In other words, reaching the plateau means having no difference between the sum of the cases of a week and the previous one: being in a period of stability of the infections. On the other hand, when this difference goes below “zero”, as happened yesterday, it means that the infections decrease from one week to the next.. “It is a slight slowdown», Comments the general manager of Welfare Giovanni Pavesi.

Caution is a must. The result could be distorted by the Epiphany data, but it would still be relevant given that the previous week presented two days with completely below average infections due to the few tests at the beginning of the year. Yesterday the new cases registered were 39,683, 24.7% less than January 6, when 52,693 emerged. And 3.4% less (hence the column below the “zero” in the graph) considering the sum of the cases in the last seven days compared to the sum of the cases in the previous seven days.

The great unknown can be represented by the reopening of the schools, which could lead to a new surge in the increase in infections and therefore move the peak again further. In short, everything is played out in the next few days and in the weeks to come: we will see if the increase in cases will undergo a new acceleration or if we can continue to think that the worst is over.

These are numbers, however, which, although decreasing, continue to impact on hospitalizations: yesterday they entered another 135 patients in the medical area, where the Covid occupation now exceeds the 33%, and 4 more in intensive care, with an occupation still below the threshold that would send the Lombarda into the orange zone, at 16.8%. Precisely to “breathe” the intensive therapies of the region – and “to allow them to continue ordinary activities”, says Pavesi – from today patients who need resuscitation can also be sent to the hospital at the Fiera. Patients will arrive here according to the indications of the Welfare DG: when a new need is created, a new patient who needs to be intubated, the Welfare DG can decide to send him to Portello. Where have they been reactivated the first two intensive care modules, each with 15 beds.

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January 14, 2022 (change January 14, 2022 | 20:55)

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